First through third on the Points Classification separated by only 16 points
While Thor Hushovd excused himself from the table of contenders for the Green Jersey in Paris after a disappointing sprint and dismissed Mark Cavendish’s chances, the three-way fight for Green on the Champs d’Elysees is still just that: a three-way fight.
Following yet another dismal sprint today in Bordeaux, Thor Hushovd, the 2009 Green Jersey winner, conceded defeat: “The power in my legs was completely absent. Now the battle for the green jersey is over, and it’s okay.”
The interviewer for Norway’s TV2 was somewhat taken aback by the surrender of the Norwegian National Champion and reminded the two-time Tour de France points winner that he was only ten points behind – how was a third Green Jersey not possible?
“Because I’m good at math, and I put the points together looking at how Petacchi and Cavendish finished today.”
While Hushovd feels his chances are nil, he feels the current wearer of the coveted jersey is the certain winner in two days time, and a certain four-time stage winner at the 2010 Tour de France is without a prayer.
“It will definitely be [Petacchi]. Cavendish does not have a chance.”
The final battle in Paris on Sunday might not be so straightforward though. After taking third in today’s sprint, Petacchi admitted that he’s far from 100%.
“At the end of the Tour de France, I am a bit slower. I blame fatigue. I have also been suffering from bronchitis for three days. I’ve tried to treat it with antibiotics.”
Taking that into account, Mark Cavendish isn’t anywhere near his best though either, but that was apparently still light years ahead of everyone else.
“This morning, I did not even know if I would take the stage start. I’ve been sick the last four days with bronchitis, which has been affecting a lot of the riders in the bunch.”
While Hushovd claims an aptitude for math, a closer look at the numbers shows that it’s possible for each of the three to win without anything jaw-droppingly crazy to happen.
The standings right now:
1. Alessandro Petacchi 213
2. Thor Hushovd 203
3. Mark Cavendish 197
Sunday’s stage into Paris will offer up three opportunities for points: two intermediate sprints (at 58 and 77.5 kilometers) and the final dash for the line on the Champs (102.5 kilometers) – a total of 42 points if a rider can manage to win all three sprints.
The intermediate points are each worth 6-4-2, and the final sprint will be worth 30 points to the winner, then 26, 24, 22, 20.
Hushovd looks likely to have the least chance of the three, as he hasn’t put together a solid sprint in a long while, so his chances are probably as he said: “over.”
Cavendish, however, looks to be the hands down favorite on the cobbled streets of Paris. For Cavendish to win the jersey though, he’ll have an uphill battle, even when dealing with an ailing Petacchi.
Even if Cavendish wins both of the intermediate sprints and takes the win as well, he’ll need Petacchi to finish lower than 4th (assuming Petacchi takes 2nd in both of the intermediate sprints). That’s not so far-fetched, but not so simple to pull off either.
If a break is allowed up the road, Cavendish’s chances go through the floor. He would obviously need a win, but in this scenario, Petacchi would have to finish 7th or lower with Hushovd going no higher in the final sprint than 3rd. At this point, a Hushovd 3rd place looks highly unlikely, but a Petacchi finish of 7th or worse looks just as unlikely.
This is where the loss of Mark Renshaw could be absolutely critical. Cavendish has shown he can win without anyone’s help. He’s just that good. He can win from the front, from second wheel, and today, he probably could have won from 10th wheel. On Sunday afternoon though, the real question is who will be behind Cavendish and where, not only in the final sprint, but in the two intermediate sprints as well. If Renshaw were present, a repeat of the Columbia 1-2 in 2009 on one the most famous streets in the world would be a fair possibility, thus pushing Petacchi and Hushovd one spot further down the ranks.
About all that Cavendish can do at this point is make sure his other sprinting rivals are recovering well. Cavendish should send some extra recovery drink mix and some extra massages over to the other sprint contenders. He could do worse than make sure the non-triumvirate top sprinters like Robbie McEwen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gerald Ciolek, Jose Joaquin Rojas, and Julian Dean are well tended to ahead of Sunday’s showdown. They won’t beat Cavendish, but if they can somehow get the better of Petacchi and Hushovd…
McEwen for one has said that he’s feeling better and is aiming for the win on Sunday: “My fourth place in Bordeaux already gives me confidence for Sunday on the Champs Elysees. I had very good legs.” While a win looks unlikely, a fast sprinting Robbie McEwen is a force to be reckoned with, and a force that has beaten Petacchi more than a few times in the past. McEwen could perhaps unwittingly end up playing the role of Renshaw by putting another body between Cavendish and Petacchi.
There will be a lot of different possibilities come Sunday, and while Cavendish has the cards stacked against him, he is still at least reasonably in control of his fate. If his HTC-Columbia team can keep it together for 100 kilometers, allowing him 1st place in all of the days sprints, it will come out very, very close.