From Gilbert to Cavendish, Farrar to Freire
Milano-Sanremo’s list of favourites is long, but Velonation selected 10 possible cyclists who could win on Saturday.
If they win, it’s instant fame. Milano-Sanremo, after all, is one of cycling’s five monuments alongside Paris-Roubaix, Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Giro di Lombardia. Some have tried to win Sanremo for years without success – example, Thor Hushovd – and some have won nearly every other time they’ve participated – Oscar Freire.
The Italian race twists along the Rivera once it arrives near Genova. The six climbs – Mànie, Mele, Cervo, Mele, Cipressa and Poggio – usually ensure that only the toughest sprinter wins or that an attacker has a chance. (There have been three successful attacks in the last 10 editions.)
The favourites:
1 Thor Hushovd (Garmin-Cervélo)
The Norwegian is the current world champion and he’s tough. He’s come close to winning Paris-Roubaix on two occasions and won the points classification twice at the Tour de France – the right ingredients.
This year, he’s without a win, but he showed in Tirreno-Adriatico last week that he’s ready for the fight. He led out Tyler Farrar twice, which resulted in a win on stage two.
Look for Garmin to bank off Hushovd’s experience and its strength in numbers. It will also have Farrar and Heinrich Haussler there.
2 Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Cervélo)
The American will gain from Hushovd’s help and may in fact be Garmin’s chosen sprinter. He’s confident with three wins already this season, but his best may be yet to come in the Northern Classics in the first week of April.
3 Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad)
The Brit won Milano-Sanremo in his debut appearance two years ago. This year, he looks to be getting back to his best after a tooth problem slowed down his preparations ahead of last year.
Cavendish has only won once so far, but attention, he’s climbing as well as he was, if not better, in 2009.
4 Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
No one has seen the 35-year Spaniard lately, which is just the way it usually is before he wins a big race. Last year, he was invisible for 297 kilometres, then grabbed his third Sanremo win in the last kilometre.
5 Tom Boonen (Quick Step)
“I’m saving myself for Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders,” the Belgian said earlier this week. However, he has been second and third in recent years and has the class and experience to pull off Sanremo.
6 Philippe Gilbert (OmegaPharma-Lotto)
He’s red hot. He’s was the top one-day rider last year with Fabian Cancellara. This year, he’s already showing strong with two wins: Strade Bianche and the hardest stage of Tirreno-Adriatico in Castelraimondo.
The Belgium’s problem is that he has to avoid a sprint finish, forcing out an attacking group over the Cipressa and Poggio and then winning from it, as he did in Castelraimondo.
7 Heinrich Haussler (Garmin-Cervélo)
The Australian/German is part of Garmin’s three-pronged Sanremo attack. He’s just as quick and confident as Farrar is. He won the points jersey at Paris-Nice last week, and would jump at the chance to improve on his second place of 2009.
8 Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-ISD)
Italy celebrates its 150th anniversary, but it’s losing control over one of its biggest races. In 101 editions, more than half, 51, have gone to foreigners.
Petacchi is the top Italian to help even the score, but he even doubts himself due to illness. “I cannot breathe,” he said, “I’m full of phlegm.”
9 Fabian Cancellara (Leopard-Trek)
The Swiss – like Boonen – is saving himself for the first week of April. However he has it in him to win Sanremo for a second time. As with his win in 2008, he needs to attack late in the race. The likelihood that he will win with an attack from 2000 metres out: 10:1.
10 Matt Goss (HTC-Highroad)
“I’ve ridden the finale a few times,” said Goss this week, “and know it like the back of my hand.”
If Cavendish shows any weakness, all of HTC’s might will likely go to support the Tasmanian. Last year, he won the GP Ouest-France one-day race and a stage of the Vuelta a España. This year, he has already won a stage of Paris-Nice and taken seven wins in all. (read this week’s VeloNation interview with him here)
Goss’ only problem is that he lacks experience, but that failed to stop Cavendish in 2009.