French analyst doesn’t see any way for Saxo Bank rider to win this year
In his latest expert column, former French pro Jean Francois Bernard has said that he expects Andy Schleck to concede a minute and a half to Alberto Contador in tomorrow’s time trial, thus putting any hope of the yellow jersey way out of his reach.
The Luxembourg rider started today’s stage eight seconds behind Contador, having been unable to take any time out of the Spaniard on yesterday’s final mountain stage. Unless his Saxo Bank team succeeds in splitting the peloton today – which is unlikely, unless very strong winds hit the riders – Schleck must beat Contador in the race against the clock.
He has never been a strong time trial rider, unlike his Astana rival. “The Luxembourg and the Spanish rider both suggest the same thing: without incident, the yellow jersey won’t change shoulders,” Bernard wrote in L’Equipe. “Alberto Contador is one of the best riders of the peloton. Last year, he even won the time trial around Lake Annecy in front of the world champion of the discipline, Fabian Cancellara.
“On Saturday, the course of the time trial, without many hills, is less favourable for him but, as usual in its third week, the rankings will mix specialists and the fresh men of the general classification. Contador should finish in the top 5, amongst riders like Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin. Andy Schleck logically should lose at least one minute 30.”
Bernard believes that Schleck personally did what he needed to do yesterday, attacking in a very strong manner on the Tourmalet and driving hard to the summit of the climb. However he said that the rider should have shown more initiative earlier in the race, faulting him for not taking opportunities when they arose. He said that he should have attacked stronger on the road to Morzine-Avoriaz, where he took the stage victory but only gained ten seconds; he said that he shouldn’t have sat on Contador’s wheel on the climb of Ax 3 Domaines, and also that he left it until the Tourmalet to make his move yesterday.
He also believes that his rival’s strength and the condition of the Saxo Bank team also went against Schleck.
“The first problem is that Alberto Contador was very strong, at least at the level of Andy Schleck and perhaps a little better,” he wrote. “To test the limits of the yellow jersey, Saxo Bank might have had to put pressure on more quickly, at the Marie-Blanque or Soulor. This is the second and main problem: Saxo Bank were not strong enough to accelerate throughout the day.
“Cancellara is no longer able to drive the peloton on the climbs. And when Jacob Fuglsang dictated the pace at the front of the peloton on the Tourmalet, about thirty riders were still behind him. A puncheur like Carlos Barredo had enough juice to even try to attack.”
Schleck finished second overall last year, and looks to once again stand on the runner-up step on the podium in Paris. His deficit to Contador will be much less, though, and so he can at least take that as a consolation. Next year, perhaps, he will be ready to win the Tour.